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Compartido el 1 . 12 . 2010 por Equipo GNOSS

La evolución de Internet: Fuerzas motoras, Incertidumbres y 4 Escenarios hacia el año 2025

La evolución de Internet: Fuerzas motoras, Incertidumbres y 4 Escenarios hacia el año 2025, traducción al español del estudio de prospectiva tecnológica que Cisco - líder mundial en soluciones de redes-  ha realizado en colaboración con la empresa Monitor Group´s Global Business Network, reflexiona sobre el futuro de la Web y desarrolla cuatro escenarios, seleccionados por su carácter innovador y sus implicaciones tanto para las empresas y organizaciones privadas como para los diversos agentes públicos. Estos son

  • FLUID FRONTIERS: Fronteras movibles
  • INSECURE GROWTH: Crecimiento frágil
  • SHORT OF THE PROMISE: El fin de las promesas
  • BURSTING AT THE SEAMS: A punto de explotar


Cisco es su newsroom explica como sigue las principales conclusiones de este estudio:

Five premises: The report outlines five powerful trends already underway that provide a common foundation for any scenarios on the Internet's future. These trends relate to the global composition and governance of the Internet, generational differences, interface technology, and pricing models for connectivity:

  • Most growth in the Internet-related market will occur outside of today's high income, or "advanced," economies.
  • Global governance of the Internet will remain substantially unchanged.
  • "Digital natives" will relate to the Internet in markedly different ways than earlier generations.
  • The QWERTY keyboard will not be the primary interface with the Internet.
  • Consumers will pay for Internet connectivity in a much wider range of ways - with flat pricing a rarity.

Three axes of uncertainty: Many other drivers of change are highly uncertain yet important influences on the Internet's future. These uncertainties can be organized along three axes:

  • Will broadband network build-out be extensive as a result of the combined effect of private and public investment, or more limited?
  • Will technological progress be characterized more by breakthroughs or mostly represent incremental advances?
  • Will user behavior (including the appetite for ever-richer Internet applications) lead to demand growth being unbridled or more constrained?

The four scenarios: The interplay of these uncertainties can result in a large number of plausible scenarios for the Internet's path through 2025. The report focuses on four scenarios that portray challenging and distinctive alternative stories about how the world might unfold:

  • FLUID FRONTIERS: A world in which the Internet becomes pervasive and centrifugal. Technology continues to make connectivity and devices more and more affordable (in spite of limited investment in network build-out) while global entrepreneurship - and fierce competition - ensure that the wide range of needs and demands from across the world are met quickly and from equally diverse setups and locations.
  • INSECURE GROWTH: A world in which users - individuals and business alike - are inhibited from intensive reliance on the Internet. Relentless cyber attacks driven by wide-ranging motivations defy the preventive capabilities of governments and international bodies. Secure alternatives emerge, but they are expensive.
  • SHORT OF THE PROMISE: A frugal world in which prolonged economic stagnation in many countries takes its toll on the spread of the Internet. Technology offers no compensating breakthroughs, and protectionist policy responses to economic weakness make matters worse - both in economic terms and with regard to network technology adoption.
  • BURSTING AT THE SEAMS: A world in which the Internet becomes a victim of its own success. Demand for IP-based services is boundless, but capacity constraints and occasional bottlenecks create a gap between the expectations and reality of Internet use. Meanwhile, international technology standards don't come to pass, in part because of a global backlash against decades of U.S. technology dominance.

Two sets of implications: Finally, the report proposes two frameworks that explore the business strategy and policy implications of each scenario.

  • What business models will best establish a sustainable, profitable position around the Internet of the future?
  • What are the policy challenges that need to be addressed, nationally and internationally?

The report's illustrative sets of implications are indicative of how the scenarios can help leaders spot opportunities and make wiser decisions about tomorrow, today.

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