Recursos > future of internet

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    Compartido el 15.3.2012 por Equipo GNOSS

    The future of Internet V: Millennials Will Benefit and Suffer Due to Their Hyperconnected Lives (by Imagining of Internet of the University of Elon y Pew Internet & Live Project)

    Internet se está convirtiendo en un arma de doble filo para las nuevas generaciones, que son además los mayores usuarios de esta herramienta;  es la denominada generación "always on". Esta es la conclusión de la quinta encuesta sobre «El futuro de internet» publicada el pasado 29 de febrero por el Pew Research Center y elaborada por Janna Quitney Anderson (Universidad de Elon) y Lee Rainie (Pew Internet & Live Project) en la que se preguntaba a los participantes sobre el hipotético escenario que contemplan en un mundo interconectado de aquí a 2020 y su impacto en la población más joven. Para este nuevo informe, el Pew Research Center realizó entrevistas en profundidad a más de 1.000 expertos de Internet y otros usuarios.

     

     

    Jonathan Grudin, investigador de Microsoft, fue uno de los entrevistados. Según él, en el año 2020 las habilidades esenciales serán la rápida búsqueda, exploración, evaluación de la calidad y la síntesis de la enorme cantidad de información que existe. Por otro lado, aquellas personas que leen y analizan durante horas, pasarán a un segundo lugar.

    Para más información, leer la siguiente web.

     

    OVERVIEW

    Teens and young adults brought up from childhood with a continuous connection to each other and to information will be nimble, quick-acting multitaskers who count on the Internet as their external brain and who approach problems in a different way from their elders, according to a new survey of technology experts.

    Many of the experts surveyed by Elon University’s Imagining the Internet Center and the Pew Internet Project said the effects of hyperconnectivity and the always-on lifestyles of young people will be mostly positive between now and 2020. But the experts in this survey also predicted this generation will exhibit a thirst for instant gratification and quick fixes, a loss of patience, and a lack of deep-thinking ability due to what one referred to as “fast-twitch wiring.”

     

    ABOUT THE SURVEY

    The survey results are based on a non-random, opt-in, online sample of 1,021 internet experts and other internet users, recruited via email invitation, Twitter or Facebook from the Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project and the Imagining the Internet Center at Elon University.  Since the data are based on a non-random sample, a margin of error cannot be computed, and the results are not projectable to any population other than the experts in this sample.

     

     

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    Compartido el 14.9.2010 por Equipo GNOSS

    El analista senior de IDC Shawn McCarthy propone en este artículo publicado en Goverment Computer News  las que a su juicio serán las10 cosas que veremos surgir en la web en los próximos 10 años." By 2020, you'll have one device for all uses, proximity networking will take hold, and spam just might be brought under control", señala Shawn McCarthy.

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    Compartido el 16.5.2010 por Equipo GNOSS

    El “Proyecto sobre Internet y Vida Americana” del Pew Research Center ha publicado un estudio sobre  el impacto futuro de Internet en las instituciones. Lee Rainie de Pew y Janna Quitney Anderson, del proyecto “Imaginar el Internet” de la Elon University han pedido a 895 expertos que predijeran el progreso probable para el año 2020.

    Un 72% aproximadamente estaban de acuerdo con esta afirmación: “Para 2020, modelos innovadores de cooperación online darán lugar a gobiernos, empresas, organizaciones sin fines de lucro y otras instituciones significativamente más efectivas y receptivas ”.

    Un 26% estaban de acuerdo con el argumento contrario, que sostenía: “Para 2020, los gobiernos, empresas, organizaciones sin fines de lucro y otras instituciones conservarán principalmente modelos de conducta propios del siglo 20 en su relación con los ciudadanos y los consumidores online y offline".

    Overview

    By an overwhelming margin, technology experts and stakeholders participating in a survey fielded by the Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project and Elon University’s Imagining the Internet Center believe that innovative forms of online cooperation could result in more efficient and responsive for‐profit firms, non‐profit organizations, and government agencies by the year 2020.
    A highly engaged set of respondents that included 895 technology stakeholders and critics participated in the online, opt‐in survey. In this canvassing of a diverse number of experts, 72% agreed with the statement:

    • “By 2020, innovative forms of online cooperation will result in significantly more efficient and responsive governments, business, non‐profits, and other mainstream institutions.”

    Some 26% agreed with the opposite statement, which posited:

    • ”By 2020, governments, businesses, non‐profits and other mainstream institutions will primarily retain familiar 20th century models for conduct of relationships with citizens and consumers online and offline.”

     

    While their overall assessment anticipates that humans’ use of the internet will prompt institutional change, many elaborated with written explanations that expressed significant concerns over organization’s resistance to change. They cited fears that bureaucracies of all stripes – especially government agencies – can resist outside encouragement to evolve. Some wrote that the level of change will affect different kinds of institutions at different times. The consensus among them was that businesses will transform themselves much more quickly than public and non‐profit agencies.

    Many selected the “change” option, but said they were not sure drastic change will occur in organizations by the 2020 time frame. They said the most significant impact of the internet on institutions will occur after that. Some noted this change will cause tension and disruption.

    The respondents who addressed the issue of “innovative forms of online cooperation” sometimes referred to activities between people and institutions that were post‐bureaucratic. They argued that people could use the internet and cell phones to create alternative, unbureaucratic structures to solve problems through network‐structured communities.

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    Compartido el 16.5.2010 por Equipo GNOSS

    El “Proyecto sobre Internet y Vida Americana” del Pew Research Center ha publicado un estudio sobre la el futuro de la Web semántica. La red se va a hacer más inteligente. Se volverá más útil. Sin embargo, existe un gran desacuerdo respecto a si la “Web semántica” se convertirá en la realidad que muchos desean.

    Lee Rainie de Pew y Janna Quitney Anderson, del proyecto “Imaginar el Internet” de la Elon University han pedido a 895 expertos que “predijeran el progreso probable para lograr los objetivos de la Web semántica para el año 2020”.

    Un 47% aproximadamente estaban de acuerdo con esta afirmación: “Para 2020, la Web semántica concebida por Tim Berners-Lee no será tan efectiva totalmente como esperaban sus creadores, y el usuario medio no habrá notado demasiada diferencia”.

    Un 41% estaban de acuerdo con el argumento contrario, que sostenía: “Para 2020, la Web semántica concebida por Tim Berners-Lee y sus aliados se habrá alcanzado en un grado significativo y claramente habrá supuesto una diferencia para el usuario medio de Internet”

     

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    Compartido el 9.2.2010 por Ricardo Alonso Maturana

    Los datos parecen indicar que Facebook es la entrada hacia los medios por la que transita más gente. Facebook es opaco para los buscadores y, mucha gente, lo tiene ya como su página de arranque en internet. Acaba de alcanzar los 400 millones de usuarios. Mientras el tráfico en Google News se estanca, el de Facebook se triplica. O sea, que en este aspecto al menos, Facebook es la verdadera amenaza para Google.

    El artículo termina con traca contra Telefónica/Alierta: "Meanwhile, bonus link: Spain's Telefonica has got into the act, saying that Google, Bing and Yahoo are using its networks "without paying anything at all". Es loco, si?"

    Abstract: "US media sites' traffic shows that Facebook is the new threat to Google.The proportion of traffic to US news media from Facebook tripled over the past year - while that of Google News stayed static. Is this the real threat to Google?"

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    Compartido el 11.11.2009 por Ricardo Alonso Maturana

    Centenares de líderes de internet, activistas, constructores y comentaristas han sido preguntados en este informe acerca de los efectos e impactos sociales, políticos y económicos que se derivarán del desarrollo de Internet en el año 2020. Este informe de PEW INTERNET & AMERICAN LIFE PROJECT sobre el futuro de internet se ha realizado teniendo en cuenta las respuestas de 742 encuestados. En general, existe acuerdo en considerar el modo en el que la  tecnología podría evolucionar, pero no tanto sobre el tipo de impacto que se derivará de esa evolución. Los escenarios y problemas emergentes sobre los que se les pide opinión a los encuestados podrían agruparse alrededor de las siguientes descripciones: I. Despliegue de una red global; II. Control Humano sobre la tecnología; III. Transparencia versus privacidad; IV. Luditas, resistentes antitecnológicos y violencia; V. Mundos virtuales absorbentes y adictivos; VI. El destino del lenguaje online; VII. Prioridades de inversión.

    Ellos resumen así su proyecto:

    "Hundreds of internet leaders, activists, builders and commentators were asked about the effect of the internet on social, political and economic life in the year 2020. The views of the 742 respondents who completed this survey were varied; there is general agreement about how technology might evolve, but there is less agreement among these respondents about the impact of this evolution.

    Reacting to several scenarios constructed by the Pew Internet & American Life Project, the respondents struck on several themes and emergent problems in their answers:

    The deployment of a global network: A majority of respondents agreed with a scenario which posited that a global, low-cost network will be thriving in 2020 and will be available to most people around the world at low cost. And they agreed that a tech-abetted “flattening” of the world will open up opportunities for success for many people who will compete globally.

    Still, a vocal and sizeable minority of respondents say they are unsure that the policy climate will be favorable for such internet expansion. The center of the resistance, they say, will be in the businesses anxious to preserve their current advantages and in policy circles where control over information and communication is a central value. In addition, a significant number of these dissenters argued that the world will not flatten enough to wipe away persistent social inequities.

    Human control over technology: Most respondents said they think humans will remain in charge of technology between now and 2020. However some fear that technological progress will eventually create machines and processes that move beyond human control. Others said they fear that the leaders who exercise control of the technology might use this power inappropriately.

    Transparency vs. privacy: There is a widespread expectation that people will wittingly or unwittingly disclose more about themselves, gaining some benefits in the process even as they lose some privacy. Respondents split evenly on whether the world will be a better place in 2020 due to the greater transparency of people and institutions afforded by the internet: 46% agreed that the benefits of greater transparency of organizations and individuals would outweigh the privacy costs and 49% disagreed.

    Luddites, technological “refuseniks,” and violence: Most respondents agreed that there will people who will remain unconnected to the network because of their economic circumstances and others who think a class of technology refuseniks will emerge by 2020. They will form their own cultural group that lives apart from “modern” society and some will commit acts of violence in protest to technology.
    But many respondents argue that violence arising from conflicts over religion, economics, and politics, will be more prevalent.

    Compelling or “addictive” virtual worlds: Many respondents agreed with the notion that those who are connected online will devote more time to sophisticated, compelling, networked, synthetic worlds by 2020. While this will foster productivity and connectedness and be an advantage to many, it will lead to addiction problems for some. The word “addiction” struck some respondents as an inappropriate term for
    the problems they foresaw, while others thought it appropriate.

    The fate of language online: Many respondents said they accept the idea that English will be the world’s lingua franca for cross-cultural communications in the next few decades. But notable numbers maintained English will not overwhelm other languages and, indeed, Mandarin and other languages will expand their influence online. Most respondents stressed that linguistic diversity is good and that the internet will allow the preservation of languages and associated cultures. Others noted that all languages evolve over time and argued that the internet will abet that evolution.

    Investment priorities: Asked what their priority would be for future investments of time and money in networking, 78% of the respondents identified two goals for the world's policy makers and the technology industry to pursue: building network capacity and spreading knowledge about technology to help people of all nations".

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    Compartido el 10.11.2009 por Equipo GNOSS

    Son muchas las personas que se están preguntando qué traerá el futuro de la web. Si bien nadie puede predecir con certeza lo que Internet tiene en su futuro, hay indicadores y tendencias que pueden apuntar en la dirección correcta. En este post publicado en Noupe por Cameron Chapman, profesional de la web y diseñadora gráfica con más de seis años de experiencia y editora de numerosos blogs incluido el suyo propio Cameron Chapman On Writing nos resume sus 15 predicciones sobre el futuro de la Web. Estas son: 

    1. Micro-Payments For Quality Content
    2. Wider Monitors For More Horizontal-Scrolling Content
    3. Magazines In A More Interactive Format (Wiki, Digital Video, Etc.)
    4. More Collaborative And Real-Time Content
    5. More Semantic Content And Apps That Exploit Them
    6. Augmented Reality In Mobile Web Applications
    7. Better Adoption Of Web Standards
    8. Better Web Security Against Phishing, Scams and Spam
    9. Even More Social Apps
    10. More High-Quality Online “TV” Programs
    11. Web Apps Play A Bigger Role In Daily Life
    12. Search Engine Optimization Will Be Less Important
    13. Your OS Will Be Online
    14. Customized User Interfaces
    15. The Web Will Be The Center Of Information And Content Distribution
     

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